| Now | Counterparty reviews of the Court. Banks, insurers and IT vendors now screen a sanctioned entity. | The Court has already moved some US software to European providers and ended its relationship with insurer Axa. Watch whether its Dutch banks publicly confirm continued service under GL 13. | R · A |
| Nov 2026 | Said sentencing hearing (Trial Chamber VI), after conviction on four crimes-against-humanity counts on 23 Sep 2026. | Both sides then have 30 days to appeal. The war-crimes acquittal turned on whether an armed conflict existed in Bangui in 2013, a finding the Prosecution may contest. | V · R date |
| 30 Nov 2026 | Duterte trial opens on three counts of murder and attempted murder as crimes against humanity. | The Court's main proof of function under sanctions. Delays here would be read as institutional strain, whatever the cause. | V |
| Dec 2026 | Assembly of States Parties, 25th session in The Hague: six judges elected, 2027 budget adopted. | Abdoulaye Seye, the OTP lawyer designated on 18 Aug 2026, has been nominated for a judgeship. Electing a sanctioned candidate would be a deliberate signal. Reported session dates conflict (30 Nov–7 Dec vs 7–17 Dec). | V venue · R dates |
| Open | Pre-Trial Chamber I ruling on Israel's Article 19 challenge, remanded by the Appeals Chamber on 24 Apr 2025. | The only path by which the Netanyahu and Gallant warrants could fall without new facts. A ruling for Israel would be read in Washington as the "progress" its licences ask for. | V remand · A pending |
| Open | Decision on the Min Aung Hlaing warrant, requested 27 Nov 2024. | Pending for nearly two years. The Court says his new presidential title gives no immunity. | R |
| 2027 | Election of a new Prosecutor. Deputies Nazhat Shameem Khan and Mame Mandiaye Niang run the Office until then; both are under US sanctions. | Candidates would expect designation on nomination. The field and the ASP's choice will show how far states parties are willing to accommodate Washington. | R |
| 7 Apr 2027 | OFAC General License 13 expires unless extended or amended. | After this date, salaries, state contributions and routine services to the Court lose their US authorisation. GL 14 (telecoms and software), GL 15 (pensions) and GL 16 (detainees) state no expiry. | V |
| H1 2027 | Abd-Al-Rahman appeal judgment (Darfur), on appeals by both sides against the 20-year sentence. | The first Darfur case to reach final judgment, 22 years after the Security Council referral. | R per OTP report to UNSC |
| Jun–Jul 2027 | Withdrawals take effect for Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Venezuela and Chad. | Withdrawal does not end investigations already under way, including Venezuela's. It does end the duty to arrest for crimes committed afterwards. | V notices · A exact dates |