Every case on the International Court of Justice General List, with a full case file on South Africa v. Israel (Gaza genocide). Built from the Court's docket and press releases, cross-checked against party and secondary reporting.
The Court has ordered a second written round: South Africa's Reply is due 22 Nov 2027 and Israel's Rejoinder 22 May 2029 V. On the Court's current pace, hearings fall around 2030 and a judgment around 2030–31 A. Reports of a "2028 ruling" predate this order and are now wrong.
Israel put its objections to jurisdiction and admissibility inside its Counter-Memorial (12 Mar 2026), not as separate preliminary objections V. That removes the usual stand-alone jurisdiction phase, so one judgment will rule on both A. The risk for South Africa is a judgment that disposes of some claims on admissibility without reaching them.
For 2026–29, the operative pressure comes from the provisional measures (still binding), the 2024 and 2025 advisory opinions, and Nicaragua v. Germany, whose objections judgment (likely 2027) decides whether arms-supplier complicity claims can proceed A.
Colombia withdrew its declaration on 18 Sep 2026 after a change of government V, and the US, Hungary, Fiji and Paraguay filed on Israel's side of the construction debate in March 2026 V. Expect further withdrawals where governments turn over before 2029 A.
| When | Event | Why it matters | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any week | Gambia v. Myanmar judgment. Hearings closed 29 Jan 2026; the Court gives about a week's notice of a reading. | First merits ruling on genocidal intent since Croatia v. Serbia (2015). Its intent standard and treatment of "failure to prevent" become the template South Africa and Israel will argue over in 2027–29. | V closed · A timing |
| Nov 2026 | Triennial election to the Court (UNGA and Security Council), five seats from Feb 2027. | The bench that hears South Africa v. Israel around 2030 will be shaped by this election and the next one in 2029. | A standard cycle; seat list not re-verified |
| 7 Dec 2026 | Ukraine's Reply in Ukraine v. Russia (Genocide), now including Russia's counter-claims, admitted by Order of 5 Dec 2025. | Russia's counter-claims make this a two-way genocide case; Russia's Rejoinder follows 7 Dec 2027. | V admissibility · R dates |
| Late 2026–H1 2027 | Nicaragua v. Germany: judgment on preliminary objections. Hearings held 7–10 Sep 2026. | If claims survive, a European arms exporter faces merits litigation over supply to Israel. Direct read-across to export licensing in Germany, the Netherlands, the UK and Italy. | V hearings · A timing |
| 2027 (est.) | Guyana v. Venezuela merits judgment. Hearings held 4–11 May 2026. | Validity of the 1899 Award decides sovereignty over Essequibo, about two-thirds of Guyana and adjacent to its offshore oil. Caracas attended but says it will not recognise the ruling. | V hearings · R non-recognition |
| Open | Admissibility orders on the Article 63 declarations in South Africa v. Israel. Parties were invited to comment on the March 2026 filings. | Whether the US declaration is admitted, and for which phase, tests the Court's limit on interveners arguing the facts rather than the treaty's meaning. | V invitation · A outcome |
| Open | France's answer on Vanuatu's application (Matthew and Hunter Islands; New Caledonia maritime boundary), filed 31 Aug 2026 under Rules Art. 38(5). | The case enters the General List only if France consents. Vanuatu has said it would seek a General Assembly opinion if France refuses. | V filing · R UNGA threat |
| 22 Nov 2027 | South Africa's Reply in South Africa v. Israel, which must also answer Israel's jurisdiction objections. | First point where South Africa's answer to Israel's objections is on file. | V |
| 22 May 2029 | Israel's Rejoinder. Closes the written phase. | Falls in the run-up to South Africa's next general election (expected 2029), a discontinuance-risk window. | V date · A election overlap |
Analytical question. Will the Court reach a merits finding of Israeli state responsibility under the Genocide Convention, when, and which legal and policy channels transmit pressure before then?
Rules Art. 79bis asks for preliminary objections within three months of the Memorial, which would have been January 2025. Israel instead argued jurisdiction inside the Counter-Memorial V. Merits proceedings were never suspended, and the Court will decide jurisdiction in the final judgment A.
The 21 May 2026 order adds roughly three years of written pleading. Israel's foreign ministry framed South Africa's 18-month request as the case "collapsing"; South Africa's Presidency answered that every earlier Genocide Convention case had a second round V. Both statements are advocacy; the docket supports neither collapse nor acceleration.
A ceasefire has held in form since 10 Oct 2025. Aid groups reported entries falling sharply in March 2026, and Gaza's Health Ministry counted 738 people killed in the first six months of the ceasefire R. South Africa has filed no new provisional measures request since May 2024 V; a ceasefire collapse is the most likely trigger for one A.
Solid marks are filed or issued. Open marks are fixed future deadlines. Hatched bands are Azimuth estimates, based on the Gambia v. Myanmar interval: Rejoinder Dec 2024, hearings Jan 2026, judgment still pending in Oct 2026.
Article 63 lets treaty parties argue how the Convention should be read. The Court has not yet ruled on the admissibility of any declaration in this case R. Alignment below is by each government's public posture, not a reading of every filing.
The US filing is unusual for Article 63: it states the allegations against Israel are false and urges a strict threshold for inferring genocidal intent from conduct in urban warfare R. Article 63 is limited to construction of the treaty, so this is the declaration most exposed to a partial admissibility ruling A.
Precedent points the same way. In Ukraine v. Russia (Order of 5 June 2023) the Court held the US declaration inadmissible for the preliminary objections phase, because of the US reservation to Article IX V prior record, not re-pulled. Here Israel's jurisdiction objections sit inside the merits pleadings, so the Court may have to separate the jurisdiction and merits parts of a single phase A.
Colombia's withdrawal followed a July 2026 agreement between Israel and the incoming Colombian government to restore relations R. Declarations track governments, not states. Interveners whose governments have changed or may change before 2029 are the early-warning list; Azimuth has not re-verified current posture in Santiago, La Paz or Brasília for this register S.
Evidence against H1: the Court's interim orders set a plausibility standard, which says little about how it will weigh proof at merits. The Gambia v. Myanmar judgment is the best near-term test of whether the Court loosens or keeps the 2015 intent standard.
Stage and last event verified against the ICJ docket where marked V. Rows marked A rely on Azimuth's prior record and were not re-verified in this pull.
| Case | Filed | Stage | Last event | Next / watch |
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